The word ‘favourite’ in the dictionary states: Sports. A competitor considered likely to win.
Or, a person or thing popular with the public. Favourites have a sense of security, of course we as humans are comforted by the popularity of something.
It is all too easy for us to use this in betting. However the bookies know this and will set the odds accordingly, so your return will be significantly lower on a favourite. You’d have to place a very large stake to make significant profit.
To make a bigger profit we need to find bets that the bookies have set odds and do not reflect the probability of the outcome. If we can identify the probability is significantly higher than the odds, then we have got what is called a value bet and the opportunity to beat the bookies creating more profit over time. Hurrah for value bets!
The bookies are masters of setting odds and would never purposely present value bets, however sports are not as simple to calculate the outcome compared to for example casinos, because sports have lots more variables and therefore we can get the competitive edge.
We therefore have to shift our thinking from favourites and underdogs to the probability of an outcome. A pure statistical model with no bias allows us to consider all the available variables across a broad set of football matches and identify only those that are a value bet compared to the bookies odds.
At Stats Profit, we do the leg work for you. Using our statistical model to calculate the probability and we only ever select value bets so you can be certain to generate a profit over time. Don’t believe us? Take a look at our betting strategy and the results to prove it.