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Data-Led Football Selections Built on 12 Completed Seasons of Research
A structured home-win strategy for betting-experienced adults
Stats Profit is a football research and selections service built on recorded data dating back to August 2014.
Now entering its 13th season, the Stats Profit model researches domestic league fixtures across 11 top-tier European leagues to identify qualifying weekend home-win selections.
A fixture can only qualify when it meets the complete league-specific selection process, including an historical home-win rate of at least 80% among statistically comparable fixtures.
Members receive each qualifying selection, the Bet365 price available when it is issued and the tools needed to follow the strategy using a disciplined fixed-stake approach.
Last 3 Completed Seasons
2023/24 to 2025/26
291 Qualifying Selections
239 Home Wins
82.1% Recorded Home Win Rate
1.26 Average Winning Odds
Stats Profit reports complete results across meaningful periods rather than focusing only on individual winning selections.
Previous performance does not guarantee future results. Losing selections, losing periods and drawdowns can occur.
How the Stats Profit Model Works
1. Eligible Fixtures Are Identified
Every potential selection must first meet a defined set of eligibility requirements.
The fixture must:
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Be a domestic league match.
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Be played on a Saturday or Sunday.
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Feature a home team ranked within the top four of the relevant Stats Profit rankings.
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Meet the complete league-specific qualification criteria.
The Stats Profit rankings are based on team performance across the previous three seasons.
2. The Home Team Receives a Statistical Rating
The model assigns the home team an average statistical rating based on the Stats Profit selection criteria.
This rating is not presented as the exact probability of that individual team winning.
Instead, it is used to identify comparable historical fixtures.
3. Comparable League Results Are Assessed
The rating is assessed against the recorded results of similarly rated home teams within the same league across the full historical research period.
A fixture can only qualify when comparable fixtures within that league have historically:
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Produced a home-win rate of at least 80%; and
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Generated an overall profitable outcome across the recorded period.
4. The Selection Is Issued to Members
Members receive each qualifying home-win selection through Telegram, together with the Bet365 price available when it is issued.
The quoted price provides a consistent reference point for recording and reporting results.
The selection does not stop qualifying solely because the available price subsequently changes. Members obtaining higher odds may achieve a better return, while those accepting lower odds may achieve a lower return.
A Disciplined Fixed-Stake Approach
Each qualifying selection is followed using a fixed stake equal to 5% of the initial betting balance.
For example:
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Initial betting balance: £3,500
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Fixed stake per selection: £175
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Stake remains £175 throughout the period
This approach is designed to:
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Maintain consistent stake sizes.
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Prevent stakes from increasing after losses.
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Avoid emotional decisions such as chasing.
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Make results easier to record and compare.
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Ensure the methodology is followed consistently.
The £3,500 balance is used as an illustrative example and is not a recommendation that every member should use this amount.
Members remain responsible for choosing a betting balance appropriate to their own financial circumstances and tolerance for loss.
Three-Season Performance Illustration
Using an illustrative £3,500 initial betting balance and a fixed £175 stake:
Recorded gross profit: £1,774.50
Gross return over three seasons: 50.7%
Simple average gross return per season: 16.9%
After deducting the current £750 three-year membership fee:
Historical illustration after membership cost: £1,024.50
Return after membership cost over three seasons: 29.3%
Simple average return after membership cost per season: 9.8%
This is a historical illustration based on the recorded Stats Profit methodology and is not a forecast of what a future member will achieve.
Individual results may differ depending on:
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The odds obtained.
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When bets are placed.
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Betting-exchange commission or bookmaker terms.
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Whether every qualifying selection is followed.
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Personal staking decisions.
Previous performance does not guarantee future profitability.
Why Follow Stats Profit?
12 Completed Seasons of Recorded Data
The Stats Profit dataset began in August 2014. The model is now entering its 13th season of research and live performance tracking.
League-Specific Analysis
A model rating is assessed against comparable historical fixtures within the same league rather than being applied identically across every competition.
Minimum 80% Historical Home-Win Threshold
Comparable fixtures must have recorded a home-win rate of at least 80% before a new fixture can qualify.
Historical Profitability Requirement
A high win rate alone is not enough. Comparable fixtures must also have generated an overall historical profit across the recorded research period.
Consistent Staking Rules
Every selection follows the same fixed-stake methodology. Stakes are not increased after a loss.
Low Time Commitment
Members receive the qualifying selections without needing to research and analyse every weekend fixture themselves.
Transparent Results
Stats Profit records both winning and losing selections and reports performance over complete months and seasons.
Follow the 2026/27 Season for Free
Receive the monthly Stats Profit results and research report
Not ready to become a member?
Join the free Stats Profit email list and follow the season month by month.
The report will include:
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The month’s qualifying selections.
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Winning and losing results.
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Recorded bank movement.
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Monthly performance commentary.
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Updates from the 2026/27 season.
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Relevant research and educational content.
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Occasional information about Stats Profit membership.
Stats Profit does not send daily promotional emails.
Membership Options
1 Year
Membership
Includes:
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Qualifying weekend home-win selections through Telegram.
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The Bet365 reference price available when each selection is issued.
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Stats Profit Excel performance tracker.
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Stats Profit Excel forecast calculator.
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Monthly performance updates.
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Access for one full year from the activation date.
£495
2 Year Membership
Includes:
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Everything within the one-year membership, with access extended across two full membership years.
£675
3 Year
Membership
The best-value option for members who want to assess Stats Profit over a longer period.
Includes everything within the one-year membership, with access extended across three full membership years.
£750
Members can join throughout the year.
Membership begins on the agreed activation date and remains active for the full purchased period.
Customers joining during the domestic summer break can complete their onboarding immediately, with the paid membership period beginning on 1 August.
Is Stats Profit Suitable for You?
Stats Profit may be suitable if you:
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Already understand basic football betting, odds and staking.
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Have sufficient discretionary funds for a betting balance and membership.
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Want a structured alternative to making your own selections.
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Are prepared to follow predefined rules consistently.
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Understand that losing selections and drawdowns are unavoidable.
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Want to assess performance over a full season or longer.
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Value evidence, historical research and transparent reporting.
Stats Profit may not be suitable if you:
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Are looking for guaranteed returns.
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Expect every match, weekend or month to be profitable.
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Intend to increase stakes after losses.
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Would be using money needed for essential living costs.
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Are uncomfortable with the possibility of losing money.
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Are under 18.
Important Information
Stats Profit is intended only for adults aged 18 and over.
Football betting involves financial risk. The statistical model, historical home-win rate, previous profitability and fixed-staking methodology do not guarantee future results.
Members place and manage their own bets and remain responsible for deciding whether betting is appropriate for their financial and personal circumstances.
Never use money required for essential expenditure and never attempt to recover losses by increasing stakes.